What’s Going On With Junior Hockey?

CHL in NCAA, 19 year olds in the AHL, USHL in the OHL??? There's... a lot of weird things happening.

There is more news than ever coming out of the junior hockey landscape this season. All of it is led by news that the NCAA has received a formal recommendation to expand access to the CHL, following an anti-trust lawsuit that spurred an in-house investigation into fair practice. All of that progress has been made readily apparent – but to say it’s only the tip of the iceberg would be a criminal understatement. Before we dive in, I want to say off the cuff that the buzz I’m hearing suggests a complete transformation of junior hockey in North America. These moves sound very successive. Once the CHL and NCAA partner, they’ll ask questions of how players should move between the CHL/NCAA/AHL. And, once that question is answered, the big question of how junior hockey will be structured next year will be quickly answered.

Since I love my newsletter subscribers, I’ll try and tap dance around this topic and share as much as I can about what to expect. In return, I ask that y’all respect where I may not be able to be too concrete. A lot will change, starting with –

Well, starting with a subscription!

And then…

CHL in NCAA

The NCAA Board of Governors are expected to vote on expanding eligibility to the CHL in the first week of November. It’s been strongly, strongly hinted that this move will go through. Not only has the collegiate association received a formal recommendation to expand access, but many CHL players are beginning to announce collegiate aspirations. Players like Braxton Whitehead (WHL, Arizona State) and Maddex Mamulak (QMJHL, Cornell) already announced commitments, and we’ve also seen top USHL prospects like Noah Kosick and Zachary Morin make moves up North with little (if any) mention of their college commitments.

That’s peculiar – and requires some unpacking. Let’s not be daft – these players are being told that they can expect to play college games as soon as next season. That suggests that we can expect eligibility to be expanded sometime between now and next October. Now, what will the details of that expansion be? Who will be eligible? How long will CHL hold control over players? How will eligibility be determined?

Those are the questions awaiting answers. The bulk of them will have to be answered by the legal agreement the NCAA will need to come to with the CHL. But they’re semantics in the eyes of front offices that need to plan for the long-term, and it seems to be that players are being told not to let a college pursuit block them from considering Canadian hockey.

Real Quick – Why Is This Even Happening?

Before we move on, let’s acknowledge why we’re here. All of this started with an anti-trust lawsuit that laid out a clear argument to the NCAA: you guys are unfairly excluding a disproportionate amount of players by counting the CHL as a pro league, which it is not. That end is very important – the argument here is that the NCAA’s rules are baseless, more than discriminatory. That is… well, true. The CHL is not a pro league, and college’s exclusion of the leagues stems from contract logistics and historically-butting heads.

So while the NCAA has finally been called out and is now (maybe) adjusting, the CHL simply recognized they were losing. That’s really it. Superstar prospects like Adam Fantilli, Sam Dickinson, Tij Iginla, and Macklin Celebrini (to an extent) have started using the college path as a weapon against CHL teams, and a means to force their ways to certain programs or bypass restrictions. Let me make it clear that these players are in no way malicious for this. They were simply using the split-interest from Hockey Canada and USA Hockey to their advantage. But it pissed the CHL off – and made USHL teams feel like afterthoughts. To curb the issue and maintain their control in negotiations, the CHL is pursuing new rulings, and beginning to show substantially more flexibility to the ideas of player movement and cross-league partnership.

So, What’s Next?

The partnership between the CHL and NCAA will have to, in some form, reshape how the CHL interacts with 18-21 year old players. A lot of that energy will go into defining the pair’s relationship, but The Hockey News’ Ryan Kennedy shared earlier that moves could be coupled with more 19-year-olds (and, really, anyone in that age group) playing in the AHL. This would require a rework of the CHL/NHL agreement, and likely be very specific to ensure CHL teams are turning over assets like USHL teams do. That’s not sustainable business when you’re guaranteeing every player a contract as hardy as the CHL’s player contract is.

This phase I don’t know much about. I can second Kennedy’s reports that the minor leagues may soon begin to support younger players, though I’ve heard a lot of reasonable concern, from all levels of North American pros, about the league leaning too far into being a U21 development league. I don’t think that will be the case – the AHL has a reputation to uphold against a declining SHL/Liiga/KHL – and hearing concerns helps assure me that’s the case. I’d love to see changes to the AHL development rule coupled with this work, but my internal timeline has me thinking those would be some lofty changes to make in one year. Nonetheless, the entry-level of pro hockey stands to change substantially as well.

Okay, What About USA Hockey?

Now we get to where my heart sits. The CHL/NCAA partnership will be the snowball that starts an avalanche. When all is said and done – leaning on reports from Jeff Marek – it seems like multiple USHL clubs could end up in the OHL. Marek named Youngstown and Muskegon, but I’ll add that rumors are swirling around multiple other clubs. Let’s be clear that the intention here would be for USHL clubs to fully assimilate into – presently – the OHL, though a lot of questions exist about if the WHL/QMJHL should also prepare for similar conversations.

Those latter talks haven’t happened yet. In fact, there’s a lot of wondering about how USA involvement would impact CHL alignment to begin with… does it make sense to have teams traveling from the Dakotas or Nebraska all the way to Portland? Probably not. Now, does that mean realignment is imminent? No, no, no, no, no. These are all curiosities in the head of the boat’s passengers, and those guiding the ship are very understandably tight-lipped about everything.

Should any USHL teams move up North, they’ll need to be able to meet CHL expectations. That means the ability to guarantee CHL-level contracts, training, and facilities – and the OHL in particular takes distinct pride in the service they offer players. I don’t know how the few talks that have formally occurred (re, Youngstown/Muskegon in the OHL) have resulted – but ensuring the league’s image can be maintained will be the upmost priority.

And The Rest?

We’re sitting in a world of wonder right now – but asking about the “rest” pulls us into full skepticism. What happens to USHL clubs who don’t move? That likely hinges entirely on if, when, and how other teams transition up North. There’s no way to reasonably answer that question as it stands, and I encourage y’all to not run away with the question. The same can be said about the BCHL and, to a lesser extent, AJHL – who would lose their hallmark as being acceptable leagues for Canadians looking to explore the NCAA. These decisions won’t be made until those plowing us through the waves finally show their cards.

But here’s the fun one – what about the NTDP? What do they do if, say, four USHL clubs move North? None of us can answer this question either - but it’s plenty fun to wonder about. Would they follow suit, thus moving a major heft of USA Hockey funding to the OHL with them? Would they go fully independent and schedule with teams across the continent? Across the globe?? Will they do something completely separate from anything I’m saying – and with ramifications likely much lesser?

Yeah, it’s probably that last one. But the decisions that the NTDP makes in response to any changes in the USHL will be pivotal. It is no secret that the NTDP has been thee major contributor to USA Hockey’s junior hockey success over the last 15 years – and their pride in upholding USA Hockey’s sanctity, or embracing the cross-league partnership, could go a long way in guiding the country as a whole.

I’ll close this section by saying that Glenn Hefferan’s USHL has been as healthy and beneficial as I’ve ever seen the league. Glenn and his team deserve a lot of serious credit. I’d give the same credit to the NAHL, who seem to be emerging more and more after a few bleak years in the 2010s. These two leagues have succeeded, and these potential moves don’t change that. I expect reasonable next steps for all tiers of USA Hockey, should changes come. The ones at the helm are… level-headed enough – ha.

What’s It All Mean?

This is a whole lot of speculation. Let me say that again – this is all speculation. But what’s the end of day impact on the children trying to achieve their goals of playing junior hockey?

The flat-out fact of the matter is that the NCAA expanding eligibility to the CHL – where this all starts – is an encouraging move that will not only expand the list of capable collegiate players, but also provide more opportunity to smaller clubs. I’ve heard some hopeful minds (myself included) wondering if that move alone could encourage more schools to implore going D1. It’s working for Lindenwood (right Badgers fans?)!

As for everything else? It sucks to say – but we’ll see. Strengthening the partnership between Hockey Canada and USA Hockey would not only be great for the sport; but it is simply a must as the countries look to hold their status as the best places to play hockey in the world. And while changes would bring a lot, lot, lot of new to how junior teams on both sides operate. But at the end of the day, I do think there is reason to think changes will lead to more opportunities for young players – so long as the middling competition between Canada and USA gets turned into passionate drive from both sides. That will need to be a priority of any new regime, because it’s not happening right now. That will also need to be coupled with more intimate, equitable, and flexible relationships between junior hockey and youth hockey. As it stands, there are a lot of issues across the AAA hockey world – far too many to get into here. Those issues won’t be rectified by these changes, but the movement will be a good start.

The end goal of anything we do should not be to make hockey more profitable, or to boost the business of any junior league. It should be about increasing the accessibility of good leagues for good players. Profitability must be secondary. Don’t forget, there’s NHL funding backing everything. I deeply hope that we see that respect shine through as we enter a world of changes.

The junior hockey landscape is going to look very different very soon, and I deeply hope that we see the passion for expanding good hockey sit at the forefront. There are questions to be answered, contracts to be drafted, and a hell of a lot that I didn’t touch on here. But these are my thoughts and understanding on the matter. Please comment with any questions, reach out on Twitter (@NHLFoley), and subscribe for more updates as this chaos begins to sort itself out. Answers are coming before the end of 2024, and maybe as soon as the next two weeks.