The First Overall Pick in 2025 Should Not Be A Defenseman

In the mix of a record-setting scorer and college's most productive defensive-center in years - it's somehow the defenseman who hasn't played that's garnering attention.

The hockey world has shocked me this draft cycle. That’s nothing new - there’s usually some slight on an American player, late-stage hype train that gains too much steam, or behind-the-scenes murmurs that throw everything out of whack. But this year has gone a step too far. In a draft class led by superstar prospects (despite pessimism around the scouting world), proud Canadians have shunned their own to embrace a player who hasn’t yet played a hockey game in calendar year 2025.

We all know what I’m talking about here - it’s the race between Michael Misa, James Hagens, and Matthew Schaefer; and I fear everyone has lost the clear frontrunner. There’s no good way to draw the thin lines between these three players, so to make the case for each clear (and keep my ramblings in order), we’ll touch on them each in turn. Let’s start with the obvious:

The Case Against Matthew Schaefer

My argument against Matthew Schaefer is very simple, but two-pronged. There’s really no denying the kid when he’s in the rink. He’s an incredible personality, a great leader, and a persistent worker off the ice; and he’s a rangy puck-handler, cerebral playmaker, and fundamental two-way man on the ice. To say those attributes have placed him high in the minds of pro teams would be an understatement. Schaefer is, by everything I’ve heard, the unanimous #1 per the pros.

But, again - the kid hasn’t played. He didn’t even reach 20 games. No - Schaefer has just 19 games on the season, split between 17 in the OHL and two at the 2025 World Juniors. He was dazzling in those games - netting a combined 24 points and showing off all the attributes that earned him this degree of hype. But in the year most critical to a player’s development, Schaefer has been sidelined by nagging injury and a need for surgery.

I am a very vocal proponent of not drafting injured players early. Simply put, it’s not worth it to spend rare capital on an asset that you can’t properly assess. You’re hoping for a boom from a flatline. It may happen, but it’s not as guaranteed as a line trending up. To that end, how are we all feeling about Adam Jiricek? Remember my whining over that..?

I digress. Do I think Schaefer will ‘bust’ as a draft prospect? Absolutely not. But he’s on course to miss the rest of the OHL season - unless he’s able to slot into Erie’s playoffs. The U18 World Championships has always been Schaefer’s target to return… we heard it from private brass almost immediately after his injury… and while a strong comeback would certainly dissuade some of my concerns, it still wouldn’t be enough to convince me over the forward options this year.

That is largely because you should never draft a defenseman first overall. Simply put. Look at the last seven defenders to go #1:

2021 - Buffalo picks Owen Power
2018 - Buffalo picks Rasmus Dahlin
2014 - Florida picks Aaron Ekblad
2006 - St. Louis picks Erik Johnson
1996 - Ottawa picks Chris Phillips
1995 - Ottawa picks Bryan Berard
1994 - Florida picks Ed Jovanovski (expanded it to seven to include this legendary three-year run)

Who panned out here? Well, Dahlin’s absolutely a Norris candidate and clear #1 for his team. You can call him a win. But for Power, Ekblad, and Johnson - the runway has led to quaint roles rotating between the #2 and #4 spots for their clubs. Now, is this kind of analysis ultimately survivor bias to some end? Is it made moot if, say, Cale Makar or Miro Heiskanen go #1 in 2017? Yes and yes. But we can ask Buffalo, Ottawa, or Florida how easy that feat is to achieve with only draft tape available. Or, in Schaefer’s case, not even that.

The Case For Michael Misa

Building out of the draft is a… contrived topic. To some end. But you simply can not build from the draft by using the most valuable pick on a defenseman. All semblance of draft pick analysis shows that the most valuable pick in the draft - re, #1 - HAS to be used on a forward. And that makes sense. There are over 2x more forwards in the NHL than defenders - and rarely is there a chance to exchange a top-line F on the open-market like teams find top-pair defenders. Wielding the #1 overall pick is the most assured chance a team can get to land a dart in the top-echelon of the position with the widest range of outcomes.

So how do you build in the draft? Well, you don’t think too hard. And when you’re presented with the OHL’s first exceptional status player since 2019 - who has scored at an equal or better rate than his predecessors - you draft him.

That’s what we’re presented with in Michael Misa - and I am beyond shocked… I mean, jaw on the ground and eyes looking ‘round shocked… that he isn’t the clear-cut top name. This is a kid who hasn’t missed a single step dating back to his AAA days. His 75 points last season was persistently critiqued over the summer - and I’m not quite sure why, especially when he ended the year with 11 points in 17 playoff games. But Misa went out and proudly… emphatically… and consistently proved every doubter to be just that this season.

Misa scored 62 goals in 65 games - let me repeat, he fell THREE GOALS SHY of a goal-per-game year - en route to 134 points all season. That’s the most the OHL has seen since John Tavares and Patrick Kane made a mockery of the 2006-07 season. Nearly 20 years later, those two players are starting to shop for the right tie to wear when they inevitably get inducted into the Hockey Hall of Fame - one as the second-greatest American scorer ever (go Hull) and the other as the first man to take the full brunt of Long Island’s hatred and come out the other side (probably the amulet…)

Misa’s scoring equates to 2.06 points-per-game. That is - and let me say it loud - the fourth-highest from a U18 player in OHL history behind Connor McDavid, Sam Gagner, and Jason Spezza. Misa ranks just ahead of Mitch Marner and two John Tavares seasons. Let’s take it further - Misa’s 62 goals are the second-most in the OHL, from a U18 player, since 2000. He’s sandwiched between Tavares and Steven Stamkos there.

Stats certainly aren’t everything, but I think they’re crucial to hit hard here. Misa is an exceptional status player who has scored at an exceptional level since he entered juniors. You watch him play and it is clearly apparent why he performs like he does. Misa is dazzling on the puck and has a sniper of a shot, with lightning quick release. But more than that, he’s a damn burly kid. He’s a strong 6’1” / 185 and knows how to use it. He wins his battles and puts his weight into opponents when he crashes into space. Misa has every bit of the physical and gritty edge you need to translate to the top flight. He’s a big and determined personality, and by all accounts a great leadership presence in the locker room (though that’s been an emphasized point for all three players in this article).

Misa checks all of the boxes - including that ever important one of “Did he play this season?” - even if he’s still learning how to stretch his dominant moments over every single shift and every single game. In my eye, he is clearly headed for superstardom at the pro flight.

The Case For James Hagens

Tough to follow up such high acclaim of Misa, but know I mean it when I say I feel every bit as strongly about James Hagens. He is on the fast-track to a top-end pro role and has been since he was 14. Hagens is every bit of an elite, two-way centerman - almost entirely on the back of just how differently he sees the game. He’s fundamentally sound and doesn’t let up space, but Hagens also processes at lightning speeds. He stays one step ahead of play, and has a uniquely keen sense of how to position his body to best make plays and get into space. He dominates the middle-lane with a consistent, cerebral, and effective style in all three zones.

I deeply contend the knocks against Hagens scoring. No, he’s not at the level of Eichel, Celebrini, or Fantilli - but he’s hardly far behind. Even scoring at a point-per-game pace ranks Hagens 10th among NCAA draft-eligibles since 2000 - between Kent Johnson at 9 (1.04) and Matty Beniers at 11 (1.00 in fewer games). Of course, both went on to be top-five picks.

Digging deeper into that scoring - Hagens scored 14.61 more even-strength points than the average for Hockey East forwards this season (min. 25 games). Pull that same number for all other players and he ranks sixth among draft-eligibles in college since 2023. Let’s see that in a visual:

A few young draftees slip through my filter here (Mustard, Adams, Eiserman) but it’s a nice visual - and helps back just how strong Hagens’ scoring looks relative to his peers.

But Hagens’ impact came on more than just the scoresheet - and the stats show it. Only one Boston College forward was on the puck more often than Hagens - Ryan Leonard - and the two are only separated by just 1 second of time on the puck. Hagens also had the BEST even-strength xGF% (expected-goals-for percentage) on the Eagles offense, and the third-best even-strength goal-differential.

I won’t belabor the stats, but he ranks as one of the best Eagles on both ends of the ice, and boasts the second-best xGA/60 of any of college’s draft eligible skaters since 2023 (behind Shane Vansaghi, another great player).

James Hagens stepped into a hard role this season. It was his job to fill the center role between a pair that had just spent three years with the same commander. The pair? Two star prospects already who stepped immediately into the NHL after the season ended. And y’know what? Hagens did great. In fact, he did better than great. BC’s top line generated 45.6% of the team’s goals this season - over 4% more than the line generated with Smith last season. Hagens added stellar off-puck and defensive metrics that Smith didn’t.

The point isn’t comparison, but justification. Hagens has performed level with, or better than, some seriously fantastic company. He did the same with the USNTDP last year. Against his peers internationally, Hagens is a damn record holder. Don’t forget his dazzling 22 points in seven games at World-U18s as an underage forward last year - the only mark higher than Gavin McKenna’s 20 points in as many games. Have we forgotten the company Hagens found himself in then!

To say it frank, I think Hagens’ special impact has shown itself time-and-time-again. He just matched the play of two wingers now in the NHL, and he’ll be confidently focused on making the NHL roster himself in just a few months. I say he does it.

Against a defenseman who - while elite - hasn’t played… give me the all-around high-impact forward. 10 times out of 10. Give me the two-way-forward over the play-driving defender… Clayton Keller over Mikhail Sergachev - to make a comparable of two guys in the same spot. Hagens is poised to fill whatever role he’s asked at the top level, and he’s done nothing but grow into his light on every stage so far.

The Verdict

This isn’t meant to be scathing towards Schaefer. He’s a great player and a great personality. It’s instead meant to be scathing towards the idea of taking a defenseman with fewer than 20 games played first overall, over two incredibly distinct, incredibly impactful, and incredibly projectable forwards. It’s truly surprised me to see consensus has become the exact opposite - effectively diminishing two amazing forwards after yet another great season from both. Misa and Hagens are the two prospects you dream of finding in the draft - and I’ll stand by my ‘Don’t Draft Injuries’ philosophy enough to say that my ranks will start with a strong pair of forwards sat a healthy tier ahead of anyone else.

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Photo courtesy of © Eric Canha-Imagn Images.