The Chicago Blackhawks Will Dictate The 2025 NHL Draft
A confusing draft looms, and the Chicago Blackhawks sit with the widest range of outcomes.
Talk around the draft is becoming increasingly louder as more teams are eliminated from Stanley Cup contention. So it goes. But this year is proving to be a particularly hard one for teams to predict. It’s not the flashiest draft class - as has been reported - but a lot of the top teams could go in multiple directions. The louder things grow, the more it seems like the Chicago Blackhawks are the biggest wrench in the cogs. Teams can reasonably assume two of the three heavy hitters will be gone when Kyle Davidson unmutes his mic on Zoom (yay remote draft). But where does Chicago go from there? I’m not sure anybody’s got a clear bet - and it’s making it hard for other teams to plan around.
The confidence really seems to speak to two of Hagens, Misa, and Schaefer being gone when #3 comes around. But even picking the pair is a hard bet. If I was a betting man, I’d put a good deal on San Jose taking Misa with #2… and slightly less on New York going bold with Schaefer at #1. But both teams could make sense for James Hagens too - and it’s hard to think of any guaranteed order. That uncertainty creates a few paths for the Blackhawks even before their selection. I’ll try to explore that in parts, starting with the clearest…
If Michael Misa is there, I struggle to see how he wouldn’t become a Blackhawk. That’d give the team two exceptional status CHL forwards to guide their franchise forward - and a Malkin to Bedard’s primordial Crosby. I have a sense (and it’s certainly just my sense) that Chicago respects that status out of Misa - to the extent that I imagine this is exactly the outcome they were hoping for after passing on Ivan Demidov for Artyom Levhsunov.
But if Misa lands before the three-slot - which I imagine he will - Chicago’s options quickly open up. They really seem to have all names on their list, and don’t get any help by prioritizing positions. I reported earlier in the week that the Hawks seem most in tune with right-wingers Anton Frondell and Porter Martone, but could also be a bet for defenseman Matthew Schaefer as they eye upside. Now it seems they can’t be ruled out of taking centers Caleb Desnoyers or James Hagens either.
There is a lot of insight to be gleaned from even just the split between the quintet. The gap between these players really seems razor thin, especially for a team that needs to make solid contact with this swing. It’s perhaps easy to think Chicago wouldn’t be a fit for the centers, but their attraction highlights an emerging philosophy in the NHL:
“ You must have two solid forward lines to win Cups, and teams with just one star line get filtered out in Round 1. “
This is a fun sentiment to bat around, but it really seems to have hooks the more you think about it. Florida, Vegas, Colorado all won with two full lines of producers - and were consistently deeper than their competition (I’d say). Even the back-to-back Lightning leaned heavily on maybe five forwards. Now, you can get worthwhile performances out of an Ondrej Palat, or an Evan Rodrigues - but their impact has to be consistent. And the best way to ensure consistency is to use stars to pad the area around those supplemental pieces.
That will be what Chicago tries to do if they go against assumption and take a center. Hagens and Desnoyers may have a tougher time carving out a clear role around Bedard, Moore, Nazar, and Slaggert - but in figuring out the fit, Chicago will be finding the chemistry that can award them those two strong lines.
Now, that’s not to say I think center is the new bet. It’s instead meant to find the reasoning behind the emerging idea of Chicago opting for center. I still expect the club to go with one of the outlined options - either the risky defenseman (Schaefer), the winger they’re distinctly high on (Frondell), or the winger everyone adores (Martone).
All three would be good bets. And that’s the hangup here. In a class where the top-notch is separated from the rest of the pack by two, three, four layers… opting to pick the ‘Best Player Available’ isn’t as instructive as it seems.
That’s the wrinkle. The separating piece between these players may come off of the ice… whether it’s combine results, pre-draft interviews, or Davidson and co’s pure gut feel. There’s no going wrong. In Martone the Hawks would get a gritty, sharp-edged scorer who knows how to bully his way to the net. Frondell offers less sharp, more size and skill. Hagens is a bonafide star who I have zero doubt in (more on him in coming articles). Desnoyers is a two-way beast who looks like he’ll dominate an NHL neutral zone. And Schaefer… well, he’s the biggest boom/bust swing we’ve seen in years.
As more comes together, it really seems that any of these five could don the Blackhawks logo next month. The challenge of finding out who it will be has proven challenging for fan and team alike. It seems much easier to assume that all but one will be gone by pick #7… I’d bet Frondell is the leftover if any. But I digress. It is becoming increasingly clear that Chicago will be the ones to dictate this draft, even if New York or San Jose pulls off a shocker with their picks.
The Blackhawks are the team with the widest array of outcomes, and the fuzziest role to fill. Where New York just needs upside, San Jose can take whoever, Utah needs a forward, and Nashville just needs help… it’s the Blackhawks who have to entertain it all. This is draft pick is pivotal for the momentum of Chicago’s rebuild - and a strong choice could go as far as spurring the team’s push back to the playoffs in just a few years. There are strong NHLers in this mix - and it sounds like Davidson could be pulling his hair out trying to figure out the likeliest of the bunch.
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Photo courtesy of Christopher Hanewinckel/USA TODAY Sports
For no reason but fun, and to put a bow on the thought, let me plant my flag by trying to predict Chicago’s board. This is a total crap-shoot, for all the reasons listed above, but it is entertaining… how would you organize these five for Chicago?
Porter Martone, RW
James Hagens, C
Anton Frondell, RW
Matthew Schaefer, LD
Caleb Desnoyers, C
Flip 1 and 5.
Do you think Martone is that high on their boards? They tend to favor exceptional skating. Not that Martone isn’t a solid skater, he just doesn’t seem to fall in the range what the prefer.