Ramblings - A De-Centralized Draft Has Teams Scrambling

The hockey world seems headed towards a lot of major shakeups today.

Welcome to draft day hockey world. We’ve made it - finally judgement day one of the most scrutinized draft classes I’ve ever seen. Not only did prospect coverage and analysis reach a new height yet again this season — but the prospects themselves were much more expressive. It created a world where teams seem ready to cast aside traditional scouting to find the personalities they believe in. At the same time, we’re at a rare point where every single team has some sort of mission they’re pursuing. Everyone is looking to tinker their lineup, ditch specific contracts, leverage draft capital, or land a big splash. Seriously, every team is primed for change.

On top of all of that, the NHL is set to announce the framework of a new CBA ahead of the draft - with multiple changes, including a longer regular-season and a $1MM league-minimum salary. All of this energy is thrilling. It really, truly feels like the NHL is entering a new era. The salary cap, prospect and player independence, and team’s confidence is all on a rise. It’s an exciting time, and today will be our first big spark. So let’s get into all I’m hearing, hoping for, and expecting while I finish my morning coffee:

• First, I dropped my final draft rankings over on Recruit. I share my thoughts, to the most succinct of my ability, on hundreds of players who will hear their names called over the next two days. Check it out - I’m very happy with how the final has come together! (Ctrl+F will be your friend!)

• Trades, trades, trades. There are going to be multiple trades today. I expect we see at least one top-10 pick moved, likely 3 notable roster-players moved, and likely a couple of swapping late-firsts for mid-round picks. I’ll try to cover all I’m hearing in this regard in turn…

• I think the whole ‘Noah Dobson to Montreal’ thing was smoke… The Canadiens are actively shopping their pair of firsts, but I don’t imagine they’d want to add a whole lot more to a deal. Certainly not Michael Hage - that’d shock me. And do you win playoff games with two defenders like Hutson and Dobson? I’d be surprised if they were the sweepstake winners, short of moving both firsts.

• (The early morning pundits are dissuading this one. I may be wrong, but the idea is fun…) Instead, I’m generally expecting Dobson to head to Utah alongside a 2026 1st for the #4 pick. Or, at least, I expect that offer would be out there. The Mammoth just cleared up 18 minutes of play-driving defensive need, and Dobson gives them a reasonable upgrade over the sometimes-spotty Kesselring. Islanders want Hagens. They deserve him. Kid’s gonna work hard for whoever lands him. But the important note here, the one that was emphasized to me — this one could come down to an on-the-clock offer. Everyone knows the pitch his coming, now you gotta throw a strike. Utah would be fine making this fit, and sees paths forward for Desnoyers, Martone, or Hagens in their system.

• To that end, the Hagens buzz is interesting. There is a lot of talk going around that he could be a faller… maybe even thee faller (thee Zeev Buium?) of this year’s class. If he gets past the 5/6/7 run… which I don’t expect, I expect he’s a lock for 4/5… the teams after that stretch don’t have much interest. They have their picks, or a tight shortlist. We’ll see - Hagens is certainly a talent worth going off-board for, even in the top-end.

• Speaking of top picks, I’m not sure what to make of the Frondell at 2 buzz. It seems unlikely… until you think about the sheer benefit a stocky, aggressive RW would bring to that lineup. Frondell doesn’t need to be the main play-driver, and would compliment Eklund and Celebrini perfectly. San Jose could take anyone in this class and find a fit — and, usually, when you hear a big boom in noise like this right as everyone’s planes are landing, it’s accurate talk. This one has some legs - and it wouldn’t be a bad call.

• Back to trades… I suppose I’m thinking chronologically… the Penguins are another team who have made it know that they’d move a first for the right return, or to move up in the class. That may not be much new at this point, but I do wonder about some of their anticipated movers. What better time to convince a team to take on the last few years of Hall-of-Famer Erik Karlsson — and what value does he add coupled with a 1st? Pittsburgh is looking to continue building their future - that’s the target, so will it be capital and prospects in return once again? I don’t know my level of confidence in this one turning into that, and I want to emphasize that, but the Penguins do reason to have a good platform to chat with teams from. Double-phone Dubas may make a return.

• Penguins will still make a pick, though, and I think they have some strong ties. Victor Eklund will be the most natural fit - their scouting team paid too much in flights to Sweden to not entertain him. If not the left-wing, I could also see Pittsburgh landing Kashawn Aitcheson or Jackson Smith on defense.

• The Vancouver Canucks are another team who are reportedly aggressively shopping their pick in search of lineup additions. They know that losing Boeser is a tough - and want to find who to rely on next sooner rather than later. I’m not sure what direction they go in, but it’ll be interesting to see how their day goes. If they don’t trade the pick, I imagine they go center (Cootes/McKinney) or right-defense (Hensler/Fiddler).

• St. Louis - add em to the pile. Looking at CHL forwrads and defenders, but could just as easily swing their first in a package for a Rasmus Andersson or Noah Dobson. I doubt the latter, but the Blues are looking to get involved. Important note, they only have three picks - so I’d think that any move would bring picks back.

• I have a strong, strong suspicion that Noah Dobson and Bowen Byram will both represent new teams by the end of the night. But who is getting left out in the pre-draft buzz? Marco Rossi. The market around him is dense, and only held off by the standoff between player and team. Minnesota could swing him to move into the first, or find a way to set up off-season moves.

• The Philadelphia Flyers seem well set on drafting Joshua Ravensbergen with one of their picks (which, they could move one of those last two). But the real interesting storyline will be whether Nashville drafts Semyon Frolov. There is real, honest buzz about the #19th-ranked player in my final rankings, and a lot of that buzz has started with some of the best goalie coaches in hockey. Hard to argue that Nashville doesn’t boast one of the best goalie minds in the world. He’d be the type to see Frolov’s ability.

• Alright, speaking of shock picks, who will be the real surprises tonight? Hard to say with how vastly spread out, and weirdly staunch, all the opinions are. I’ll share some day-one sleepers, by range of outlandishness…

  • Seems likely

    • Sascha Boumedienne in the top-25.

    • Carter Bear in the top-25.

    • Shane Vansaghi on day one.

  • I’m skeptical

    • Jack Nesbitt lands top-20.

    • Alexander Zharovsky break Russians into day-one.

    • Cullen Potter falls out of day-one.

    • Run of defenders between 12-16, with Hensler/Aitcheson/Fiddler leading the pack.

  • Would be crazy

    • Daniil Skvortsov or another surprising CHL defender goes early.

    • Henry Brzustewicz slides to day-two.

    • Jack Ivankovic goes in the waning moments of the night.

• Here’s a tidbit away from the draft for those who read all the way through. I’m hearing Cody Glass is very close to re-signing in New Jersey, despite the team’s previous plans to not qualify him. Good news for a great person.

• Alright, let’s close out with some superlatives, and a total gut-call, totally for-fun attempt at predicting the first round. Thank you all for sticking around through this season. This substack is only on the rise, and I deeply appreciate that y’all want to hear my thoughts! Cheers to more hockey convo coming this summer!
  

  
  All-Team Most Improved
  Will Horcoff - Braeden Cootes - Vaclav Nestrasil Jr
  Edison Engle - Bryce Pickford
  Lucas Beckman
  
  Draft Sleeper (First Round) - RW Justin Carbonneau, RW/C Will Horcoff, LW Ryker Lee
  Draft Sleeper (Day Two) - D Aron Dahlqvist, D Ludvig Johnson, C Hayden Paupanekis, G Elijah Neuenschwander, G Roberto Leonardo Henriquez, C Mason Moe, LW Mikhail Fyodorov
  
  Gut-Call Mock Draft
  1. NYI - Matthew Schaefer, LD
  2. SJS - Anton Frondell, RW
  3. CHI - Michael Misa, C
  4. NYI (from UTA) - James Hagens, C
  5. NSH - Porter Martone, RW
  6. PHI - Caleb Desnoyers, C
  7. BOS - Brady Martin, C
  8. SEA - Radim Mrtka, RD
  9. BUF - Jake O’Brien, C
  10. ANA - Roger McQueen, LW
  11. PIT - Victor Eklund, LW
  12. SJS (from PIT) - Kashawn Aitcheson, LD
  13. DET - Lynden Lakovic, LW
  14. CBJ - Justin Carbonneau, RW
  15. MIN (from VAN) - Carter Bear, LW/C
  16. MTL - Malcolm Spence, LW
  17. MTL - Logan Hensler, RD
  18. CGY - Blake Fiddler, RD
  19. STL - Braeden Cootes, C
  20. CBJ - William Horcoff, RW/C
  21. OTT - Cole McKinney, C
  22. PHI - Jackson Smith, LD
  23. NSH - Sascha Boumedienne, LD
  24. LAK - Jack Nesbitt, C
  25. CHI - Vaclav Nestrasil Jr., RW
  26. NSH - Cole Reschny, C
  27. WSH - Bill Zonnon, RW/C
  28. WPG - Ryker Lee, LW
  29. CAR - Cameron Reid, LD
  30. SJS - Jack Murtagh, LW/C
  31. PHI - Joshua Ravensbergen, G
  32. CGY - Henry Brzustewicz, RD