2023 NHL Draft Mailbag: Which Teams Wants to Move in the Draft, Gavin Brindley Hype, and More
Welcome to my first 2023 NHL Draft Mailbag, where we’ll be diving into questions around underdiscussed First Round talent, which NHL teams might be looking for a trade, where Gavin Brindley will fall, and the USNTDP!
Q: What low-graded prospect do you think will go highest in this draft?
A: I wish I could drag this question out more but the seemingly-objective answer is Étienne Morin. He is an absolute favorite among a section of NHL scouts. CSS Director of Scouting even called Morin the best defender in the class just recently. I think Morin is making a very strong case for a First Round selection and I could even see him going as early as the late-teens or early-20s, if a team like Detroit or Seattle are feeling adventurous.
Other names that fit this bill include Maxim Štrbák and, interestingly, Lenni Hämeenaho, two players who I think could squeak their way into the First Round — thanks to Štrbák’s heavy defensive ability and debate over Hämeenaho’s offensive ceiling, something I think some scouts would argue the public is too bearish on.
Q: Which team(s) might want to trade up and which might want to trade down?
A: Oo this is a fun one. Let’s break it into parts…
Trade Up: I expect we’ll have a decent bit of motion on-or-around draft day. Winnipeg is being forced into a sticky situation with Connor Hellebuyck and may see the 2023 Draft as their best chance to maximize a return, although an undefined trade market for goalies of this caliber makes it a hard road to navigate.
Trade Down: I would also keep a very close eye on the St. Louis Blues, who are heavily rumored to be shopping one, or maybe even two, of their First Round picks in exchange for roster players. This comes in the wake of an unusually-abhorrent season from the Blues - one that they are very eagerly hoping to leave in the dust next year. The team is quite fond of Sweden’s high-end defenders, making me believe they’ll want to keep their spot at #10, but look out for their other two picks in the Top 32!
Trade… Anything: The Buffalo Sabres are going to be very interesting to watch. They’ve made it seem like they’re in on just about every open market player and Victor Olofsson being recently dangled as trade bait throws a curveball at anyone trying to predict which way they’re leaning. I could see Buffalo sacrificing Pick #13 in a larger deal, if it means reeling in a player that their staff feels really confident in - they’ve been looking for a truly solid addition. But I also know that Buffalo is very eager for this draft class and excited to see which players end up falling, something that could inspire them to trade up. After a season of relative success, it’ll be interesting to see how excited Buffalo gets.
Q: How far will Gavin Brindley fall in the draft?
A: Gavin Brindley’s hype headed into the draft is a good example of why remembering DY-1s - or the season before a draft-eligible season - is so important. He earned a lot of very serious attention with his performance in the second-half of 2021-22 and I think that’s carried into his season with Michigan. His C/RW flexibility - which he got to show off when Adam Fantilli was away with Canada - gives him a comfy boost as well.
But size was the question mark last season and I don’t think it’s been answered to the degree that many scouts were hoping it would this year. I’ve also heard some label his style as a bit too ‘hit-and-run’ and question whether it would have the same effect against professional competition. Brindley’s play has been encouraging but those questions, combined with the obvious (but I think a bit dampened) size concerns, are enough to make me believe that we won’t hear Brindley’s name until Day 2, even though some NHL teams are considering him as a late-First Round candidate. But I’d expect he falls closer to 37-50.
Q: How much of Gabe Perreault's record setting scoring is attributed to himself, how much is attributed to his line mates, and how much is it attributed to the 3 of them as a whole? How do you evaluate a player who scores more than both his line mates who are projected to go higher?
A: I love this question, and it’s really exciting to be apart of a community that asks things this deep. The answer to this could, and probably does, warrant an entire article of its own but to put things shorter, this comes down to two very important steps that I face constantly when scouting.
The first step is to ask, “how are they scoring?” InStat hockey tracked 43 of the 72 goals that Gabe Perreault scored this year and every single one came from below the hashes.
This is a case where step one works beautifully. This shot chart, and watching him play, show that Perreault’s heavy-scoring is largely thanks to his net-driving ability, a defining trait that’s well-boosted by the play-driving of players like Will Smith, Ryan Leonard, and Oliver Moore.
But step one isn’t always so telling. If that’s the case, I then turn towards scouting for translatability above all else. Perreault’s net-front scoring is incredibly encouraging - that’s a great nerve to build up young - but it’s a style that requires a learning curve. If you want to score by forcing your way to the net, you have to be strong enough to fight off the soon-to-be professional opponents trying to stop you. This is juxtaposed with a player like Will Smith, whose scoring came largely from his ability to play off of his teammates and use quick stickhandling to beat opponents - two traits that I’d expect to translate to pros without the need for as much of a learning curve.
I think answering the question of “how much of this scoring is attributed to X?” can be a bit difficult and potentially quite subjective. But the two steps above allow us to change the angle, letting us appreciate high-end scoring while still acknowledging that it’s only one piece of the puzzle. In the case of Gabe Perreault, we can prepare to temper expectations for his scoring in years to come, knowing that there might be important adjustments inbound.
Closing Out
The 2023 NHL Draft is undoubtedly one of the best classes the league has ever seen. Its opportunity to change the entire face of scouting is absolutely incredible and I’m happy we were able to speak to that so much in this article. Thank you to everyone who submitted questions!
Which questions did I miss? Did I inspire more burning questions about the Draft? If I get enough questions, I’d happily do a Part 2 to this before June 28th! Feel free to use the comment feature below to share ideas for Part 2 or reach out on Twitter (@NHLFoley)! And don’t forget to subscribe so you don’t miss my future works!
Featured Image:
U18 Ice Hockey World Championship 2023 - United States v Sweden
BASEL, SWITZERLAND - APRIL 30: Gabe Perreault of United States (R) in action against Gustaf Kangas of Sweden (L) during final of U18 Ice Hockey World Championship match between United States and Sweden at St. Jakob-Park at St. Jakob-Park on April 30, 2023 in Basel, Switzerland. (Photo by Jari Pestelacci/Eurasia Sport Images/Getty Images)